Australian Inflation Expectations Surge as Petrol Prices Soar

Australia's inflation expectations have risen to 6.1% in late August, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations survey. This marks a 0.5 percentage point increase from July and is the highest reading since mid-April.

The renewed rise in inflation expectations is attributed to the winding back of fuel excise cuts, which began in early July and ended in early August. The average retail petrol price rose from under $1.60 per litre in late June to over $2 per litre in August, a 40-cent increase since late June.

The latest official Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate was 3.8% for the year to June 2026, above the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred target range. Roy Morgan's state-level data shows that Inflation Expectations fell in all states except Tasmania and New South Wales, which saw small increases.