Australia's Inflation Expectations Rise to 6.1% Amid Petrol Price Surge

Australia's inflation expectations have risen to 6.1% in late August, according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations report.

The weekly measure has increased in six of the last seven weeks since mid-July and is now only 0.1 percentage points below the 26-week average of 6.2%, recorded since the Iran War began on February 28, 2026.

The rise in inflation expectations is a cost and demand signal for apparel importers, retail buyers, and sourcing teams tracking inflation and interest-rate conditions in the Australian market.

Average retail petrol prices hit a four-and-a-half-year low of $1.597 in late June before the fuel excise cut began to be unwound, resulting in an increase in average retail petrol prices by over 40 cents per litre since late June and now averaging over $2 per litre so far in August.

Roy Morgan's chief executive officer, Michele Levine, said that the recent petrol price spike is driving inflation expectations higher and putting renewed pressure on inflation estimates, which may lead to further interest-rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia before its late-September meeting.