BI Projects Rupiah to Strengthen to Rp16,430 Per Dollar by Next Year

Bank Indonesia (BI) has projected that the Indonesian rupiah will be around Rp16,430 per US dollar by next year. This estimate is based on the central bank's latest 2026 projection and is slightly stronger than the assumption in the 2026 State Budget of Rp16,500 per dollar.

Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo announced this projection during a working meeting with House Commission XI on November 12, 2025. The average exchange-rate projection for next year is set at Rp16,430, according to BI. This forecast matters because it sets the tone for import costs and market expectations.

BI's intervention in various markets, including the non-deliverable forward market and the spot market, has been aimed at stabilizing the rupiah. However, this effort has led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves from US$155.7 billion in 2024 to US$148.7 billion by October 2025.

The central bank's next moves will be closely watched, especially after BI said its stabilization steps have already affected reserves. The market now has a target of Rp16,430 with the government planning for a similar range and foreign exchange reserves at US$148.7 billion as a warning sign.