Bitcoin Options Traders Bet Big on Upside Ahead of Fed Meeting
Bitcoin options traders have been unwinding their downside hedges ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, according to data from Glassnode. The put/call open-interest ratio has dropped to about 0.52 from 0.76 in late June, indicating that calls are gaining share over puts.
Large traders have been accumulating $70,000 strike calls and bull call spreads, signaling expectations of upside in the spot price. This shift away from hedging is unusual, especially given the upcoming Fed meeting, which could potentially impact markets.
The 25-delta skew has fallen to around 4% at the one-week tenor, while three- and six-month contracts hold at 11% to 12%. Implied volatility is compressed across the curve, with a steep upward slope indicating that traders see the immediate future as calmer than the distant one.
The Fed's rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, and markets have put the odds of a July increase at roughly 15%. The low near-term pricing has left little cushion if the statement or projections surprise investors, potentially amplifying moves rather than absorbing them.