Bitcoin Price May Have Bottomed as Macro Forces Trump Halving Cycle

Grayscale's research suggests that the current Bitcoin bear market may not follow the traditional four-year cycle, which has historically resulted in significant price declines. According to Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, previous cycles have seen an average loss of nearly 80% during each downturn.

If the four-year cycle repeats, Bitcoin could remain under pressure until September or October. However, Pandl notes that economic growth and Federal Reserve policy are becoming increasingly important in determining demand for the asset.

Grayscale believes that if the Fed avoids rate hikes and U.S. economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed out. This outlook depends on the resilience of the U.S. economy and could be impacted by a renewed rise in interest rates or a sharp slowdown in growth.

The debate reflects Bitcoin's evolving position in global finance, with its supply still governed by code but its price increasingly influenced by traditional macroeconomic factors.