Bitcoin Returns Influence Household Crypto Purchases, Study Finds

A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has shed light on how information about Bitcoin's past performance influences household crypto purchases.

The researchers conducted a randomized experiment in the second quarter of 2025, showing participants data on Bitcoin's returns alongside other assets such as the S&P 500 and GameStop. The results showed that households shown Bitcoin's trailing 12-month return increased their desired crypto allocation by about two percentage points, a 47% jump from the control group.

The study also found that people who already owned crypto had different expectations than those who did not. In 2021, owners expected an average return of 22%, while non-owners expected just 7%. By 2025, expectations had dropped for both groups but the gap remained.

The researchers found that expected returns predicted crypto ownership better than age, income, gender or wealth. Each extra percentage point in expected return was linked to a 0.8-percentage-point rise in the chance of owning crypto.