Bitcoin's Rebound Under Pressure From Macro Factors and Whale Inflows
Bitcoin's recent rebound to the $64,000 range is not without its concerns. According to Cointelegraph, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for a second time this year, casting doubt on its long-term trend.
The weekly close fell short of analyst Benjamin Cowen's target of $63,220, suggesting that resistance at this level could confirm a downside break. Rekt Capital warned that if the price falls below $63,220, it may decline further within the $58,000 to $66,000 range.
Macro factors are also weighing on Bitcoin, with preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services PMI readings and the release of Federal Reserve minutes from July's meeting set to be released this week. Recent inflation data has shown a milder trend than expected, which could lower market expectations for additional rate hikes.
The Bank of Japan is also under scrutiny as its 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.93 percent on August 17, the highest level since 1996. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr cautioned that if Japanese government bond yields move above 3 percent and BoJ rate hikes coincide with rising U.S. Treasury yields, it could tighten global financial conditions and shock stocks and Bitcoin.
Additionally, internal market flows are not favorable for Bitcoin, with Glassnode reporting net outflows of $267.2 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs last week. The analyst also noted that whales have been taking a larger share of recent exchange inflows, which could increase the amount of Bitcoin available for trading or hedging.