BLS Jobs Report: A Single Number Is Not a Verdict

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent.

The numbers certainly suggest that the labor market has weakened, but before jumping to conclusions, it's essential to remember that these numbers are estimates.

According to the BLS, the Current Employment Statistics survey collects payroll information from approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies representing about 622,000 worksites, which is an enormous sample covering about one-quarter of American payroll employment.

The headline payroll number comes from this survey, but it's a sample, not a definitive measurement. Revisions are not corrections of 'mistakes' in the ordinary sense; they're updates to an estimate as information improves.