BLS Sees Smaller Than Expected Revisions to Nonfarm Employment Estimates

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its annual preliminary benchmark revision on Friday, estimating total nonfarm employment for the 12 months through March 2026 was overcounted by 79,000. This is a smaller revision than in previous years and marks a return to more typical levels.

The monthly nonfarm payroll number is based on a survey of approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies, representing about 622,000 individual worksites. To refine the estimate, the agency goes through an annual revision process that incorporates more accurate data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages report.

Details of the preliminary revisions showed that the overestimate for private employment was even larger at -178,000. Industries with large downward revisions included wholesale trade (-86,200), manufacturing (-67,000), retail trade (-154,600), and private education and health services (-96,000).