BofA Sees USD/JPY Target at 149 by Year-End Amid Yen Intervention

Bank of America Global Research has identified four key players involved in Japan's yen-buying intervention framework: Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF), the US Treasury, the Takaichi administration, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, the degree of alignment between these stakeholders is unclear due to differences in mandates and policy objectives.

The current intervention framework includes FX intervention by Japanese and US authorities, BoJ rate hikes, fiscal or broader economic measures by the government. The effectiveness of other policy tools can be affected by intervention, according to BofA.

There is also speculation that Prime Minister Takaichi could reshuffle the cabinet by September, which may influence personnel decisions in light of intervention developments.

BofA remains constructive on the yen and has revised down its USD/JPY forecasts for year-end 2026 to 149 (previously 152).