Brexit's Economic Impact: A Decade On

It's been ten years since the UK left the EU, and economists are now able to assess the economic impact of Brexit. One company that has seen a significant effect is Eskimo, a Bristol-based firm that developed high-fashion and energy-efficient electric radiators. In 2020, 40% of their exports went to the EU, but by 2025 it was just 5%. Phil Ward, the boss of Eskimo, attributes this decline to 'the Long Brexit effect', citing red tape and paperwork as major obstacles.

According to export figures from the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, there has been a rapid 26% reduction in the different types of UK exports by 2023. A study from Aston University Business School using five years of trade data found a loss of 53.8% of export varieties and 31.5% for imports.

While some argue that Brexit has had minimal impact on the economy, most economists agree that there has been significant damage. Nick Bloom, a British Stanford University professor, states that 'it was, if anything, worse than we thought'. Research using Bank of England data suggests that business investment has been significantly lower since 2016, with a £29bn or 1.3% reduction in the size of the economy.

One area that has performed better is services trade. Exports from the UK to the EU are up 57% over the last decade, driven by categories including accountancy, legal services, and consultancy. However, imports from the EU are also up, with some arguing that Britain might have done even better without Brexit.