Canada's Climate Future: A Grim Choice Between 3.5°C and 5°C Warming

A new federal report from Canada's Changing Climate Report warns that Canadians must prepare for decades of severe wildfire seasons, extreme heat days, rising seas, and diminishing water resources due to glacier loss.

The report, which was compiled by over 100 academics and experts, finds that Canada will be about 2.7°C warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next two decades, close to twice the global average, regardless of actions taken to reduce global emissions during this time.

Warming is amplified in Canada because northern latitudes absorb and hold onto heat as reflective snow and ice melt away, even if the world reaches net-zero emissions by mid-century. The report describes two possible futures for Canada: one where warming levels off around 3.5 degrees due to global action, and another where Canada faces average temperature increases of 5°C by 2100.

The gap between these two futures is enormous, with the cost to Canada's economy estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars a year by 2100 if no further action is taken. The report emphasizes that adapting now can limit damage from warming already locked in and pay for itself many times over.