Canada's Economy on Brink of Disaster if CUSMA Talks Fail

A new economic analysis by Oxford Economics warns of devastating consequences for Canada's economy if CUSMA renegotiation falls apart. The report, commissioned by the Canadian American Business Council, projects that a collapse of the agreement would lead to 102,000 job losses in Canada and $271 billion in lost gross domestic product by 2035.

The analysis examines three possible outcomes: status quo, CUSMA breakdown, and successful renegotiation. According to the report, a successful renegotiation could reverse this trajectory, resulting in a net gain of 98,000 Canadian jobs and 137,000 American jobs in 2027.

The report's findings are particularly concerning for Ontario and Quebec, Canada's largest manufacturing provinces, which would face significant losses under a breakdown scenario. Auto, wood product, and metal product manufacturing were identified as the most exposed sectors.