Canada's Provincial Economies Poised to Outperform Despite Tariffs

According to new analysis from Signal49 Research, Canadian provinces are poised for growth despite ongoing tariff uncertainty. The lead economist at Signal49 Research, Richard Forbes, stated that while the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and demographic pressures have had reverberating effects across the country, they have been felt unevenly.

The increased energy prices have had benefits for some provinces, while the tariffs have been hardest on Ontario and Quebec due to exposure in the manufacturing sector. Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead the country in growth for a second consecutive year, driven by higher oil prices, with GDP anticipated to grow 3.7 per cent in 2026.

Prince Edward Island's economy will be supported by tourism, as well as investment in the aerospace, advanced manufacturing, and bioscience industries. The province's GDP is forecast to increase 1.6 per cent in 2026.