Carney Takes Aim at Trump's Weak Hand

Prime Minister Mark Carney is facing off against US President Donald Trump in trade negotiations and has a strong hand to play. Despite Mr. Trump's tariffs causing pain for Canadian exporters, his domestic position is weak.

Mr. Carney enjoys a high net approval rating among Canadians, with 20% of the population disapproving of him while 40% approve, making him one of the most popular G7 leaders. He also has a majority government and would win an election in a landslide if forced to contest.

Canadians are united behind the prime minister's firm stance on trade talks with the US, and do not like it when he appears to make concessions to Mr. Trump. The Canadian economy has shown resilience in the face of the US-China trade war, with GDP growth not being great but still outperforming other G7 countries.

Meanwhile, the US economy is slowing down, employment is flat, and real wages are declining, leaving most Americans worse off. Mr. Trump's net approval rating is at -20%, and his unpopularity extends beyond traditional Democratic voters to many Republicans who are unhappy with his handling of the economy and inflation.

The US faces a major electoral test in less than 100 days, and the prospects for Mr. Trump's Republican Party look bleak. The betting markets currently place the House of Representatives as a near certainty to go Democrat, while the Senate has shifted from being likely to remain Republican to a coin toss.