Carney's Trade War Leverage Wanes as Canadians Face Rising Job Losses

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has received widespread support from his citizens for his tough stance against US President Donald Trump's tariffs, but this approval may not last as the trade war continues to escalate. According to an Angus Reid poll, 76% of Canadians approved of Carney's decision to suspend trade talks with the US.

The poll also showed that 40% of Canadians are worried about job losses due to the trade dispute. Dan Arnold, a former research director for ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said that Canadians are aligned with Carney's approach towards Trump and see him as a 'cartoon villain' who is causing economic difficulties.

However, economists warn that Canada cannot win an economic war of attrition against the US, which has a 13 times larger economy. Julian Karaguesian, a former adviser at Canada's Finance Ministry and economics professor at McGill University, said that Carney's leverage will start to diminish if the trade war shows up in palpable increases in unemployment, factory shutdowns, and declining income.

The US has imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber imports, affecting 5% of Canada's exports. Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, estimates that these tariffs could result in 90,000 lost jobs. The Canadian central bank also warns that a US withdrawal from the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement would likely tilt Canada into recession.