Central Banks' Interest Rate Decisions Loom Large Over Bitcoin Price

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions next week, which could impact Bitcoin's price. The Fed has held its target range at 3.5% to 3.75% since December 2022, but there is still about a third of pricing that favors a hike. Markets expect a hold in the case of both central banks, with CME FedWatch putting the odds of a July hike near 38%, down from 12% a week earlier.

Oil prices have driven this move, with Brent crude settling above $100 a barrel on July 23. However, renewed hostilities and oil surges could lift July inflation, which will be reported on August 12. The July meeting includes no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference as the only outputs.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to hold its policy rate at 1% next Friday. However, it's the yen that holds a larger variable for Bitcoin, with the currency sliding past 163 per dollar last week. Officials have been vocal about their willingness to intervene if necessary, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama saying 'we will take decisive action appropriately at any time'.