Commerzbank Sees Resilient Growth Supporting Indian Rupee Amid Ongoing USD Influence
Commerzbank strategists are highlighting resilient domestic growth in India as a support for the Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects India's economic growth to moderate to 6.7% in FY2026-27, while inflation is expected to remain contained at 5.0%. This growth is driven by strong industrial production and investment activity.
The RBI expects a Q2 GDP release of 7.3% year-on-year, down from 7.8% in Q1. Investment activity remains supportive, with capital goods production expanding double-digits and the government's infrastructure spending contributing to growth.
However, for the INR, this growth is only modestly supportive, as USD/INR is likely to be driven by oil prices, the broader US Dollar direction, and RBI intervention in the near term. The strategists at Commerzbank expect consolidation between 94-96 for the USD/INR pair.