Crédit Agricole Sees RBI Hikes From Q4 Amid Expensive Oil and Weak Monsoons

Crédit Agricole has revised its forecast for RBI hikes, expecting increases from Q4 due to expensive oil and weak monsoons threatening inflation. The bank previously predicted no interest rate hikes through 2026-27.

The US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate closed Friday near 95.59, just 0.4% below Crédit Agricole's second-half forecast of 96. USD/INR gained about 1.2% over the week as the Rupee surrendered its early-September recovery.

Higher oil prices above $100 exceed the RBI's assumed range of $80-85, while weak monsoon rainfall threatens food supplies and stronger growth increases the risk that higher costs spread through the economy.