DAX Slips as Markets Brace for Iran Sanctions Fallout

The German DAX index dipped by 0.11% on Monday as investors waited for details on new US sanctions against Iran, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called an 'Economic D-Day'.

Geopolitics took center stage with little fresh data available early in the week. The threat of disrupted Gulf oil flows and shipping routes has significant implications for European companies' costs, including fuel and freight insurance. As a result, shares in DHL, a German logistics company, finished up 0.93% as Metzler, a German investment bank, estimated that Middle East-related shortages and higher transport prices could add around €250 million to DHL's fiscal-year 2026 earnings.

Despite this one-off earnings lift, analysts typically exclude it from their longer-term forecasts and value the company on 'clean' earnings. The bigger swing factor for DHL's valuation is whether management can use this opportunity to prove it can run the business at a higher, repeatable profit level than its current €6.5 billion fiscal-year 2026 operating-profit (EBIT) target.

Meanwhile, markets are looking ahead to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28th, where some analysts expect him to emphasize progress on inflation and defend keeping rates on hold even if core inflation stays above the Fed's target. This stance could have significant implications for global borrowing costs and the appetite for risk.