Dollar Decline Does Not Necessarily Mean Central Bank Bitcoin Buying
Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve recently published an analysis on the decline of the dollar's share in global official reserves. According to their study, a drop from 64% at the end of 2015 to 56% by the end of 2025 does not necessarily prove central bank Bitcoin purchases.
The researchers found that the decline can occur through two paths: changes in currency composition or changes in reserve size. They pointed out that Switzerland's growth in reserves between 2015 and 2019 pushed down the aggregate share of the dollar, even though its own allocation increased. This highlights that diversification beyond liquidity needs does not automatically reveal where the money is directed.
The study notes that sovereign demand for Bitcoin requires separate evidence, such as disclosed allocations, sources of funds, and executed purchases. The National Bank of Czech Republic's test portfolio announcement on November 13, 2025, which included a $1 million allocation to digital assets including Bitcoin, was cited as an example.
However, the researchers emphasize that this does not necessarily imply central bank investment in Bitcoin, but rather highlights the complexity of reserve management and the need for careful analysis before drawing conclusions about sovereign demand.