Dollar Dives Ahead of NFPs as Bears Eye Key Support Confluence

The US Dollar has broken back below its 200-day moving average, keeping intact the downtrend that started in July. The late-August recovery failed at technical resistance near $99.80, and price is now approaching a major support confluence near the August lows. This region is defined by the 2024 August high-day close and the May low, with the 25% parallel of a descending pitchfork converging on this level over the next few days.

A break below the 98.68/69 pivot zone would expose deeper downside objectives, including support levels at $97.94 and $97.63/65. The bears are now approaching pivotal support near $99.68/69, which has been a key pivot zone for the US Dollar all year.

Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report represents a critical catalyst into the weekly close, with markets divided on the prospect of further policy tightening from the Fed. A stronger employment print could keep the debate alive and place even greater emphasis on next week's CPI report for guidance on the Fed's next move.