Dollar Falls Broadly Against Egyptian Pound Amid Morgan Stanley Scenarios

The U.S. dollar and euro fell against the Egyptian pound at the close of Thursday's trading, marking a broad decline across most banks operating in Egypt's banking market.

According to Morgan Stanley, Egypt's external position has proven more resilient than expected over the past five months, highlighting the economy's ability to absorb external pressures.

The investment bank outlined three potential scenarios for the Egyptian economy, with the outcome linked primarily to oil-price developments and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the first scenario, Brent crude would fall to around $65 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and $60 in 2027.

Morgan Stanley said this scenario would reduce Egypt's energy import bill and narrow the current-account deficit to approximately $13 billion, supported by stable remittance inflows. The International Monetary Fund has emphasized the importance of exchange-rate flexibility in helping Egypt absorb external shocks and manage volatility in capital flows.