Dollar Slips as Missed Retail Sales Forecasts Weaken Rate Hike Chances
The US Dollar declined on Friday after July retail sales fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The retail sales data released at 13:30 BST showed a 0.6% decline against forecasts for a 0.1% rise, with sales totaling $763.6 billion.
Despite still being 5.0% higher than last year, the miss on expectations weakened the Dollar and lifted the Pound Sterling (GBP/USD) and Euro (EUR/USD) to multi-month highs. The GDP-linked control group dropped 0.4%, missing forecasts for a 0.3% increase.
BMO Capital Markets senior economist Sal Guatieri stated that the figures indicated 'a material slowdown in real consumer spending growth in the third quarter', strengthening the case for a September pause. Goldman Sachs subsequently cut its third-quarter GDP estimate by 0.5 percentage point to an annualised 2.2%.
The weaker signal favored Fed patience, leaving the Dollar softer on Friday and interest-rate futures showing a 69.4% probability of a September hold. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading at 15:00 BST provided another soft signal, falling to 51.0 from 55.2 and missing the 54.5 consensus.