Dollar Waits for Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut

The US dollar held steady near a one-week high as traders waited for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, searching for clues on whether a rate hike could come as soon as September.

FX markets were in pause mode, with the dollar index hovering around 99.13, while the euro and British pound sat near one-week lows, despite Reuters noting both currencies are still on track for a second straight monthly gain.

The calm is driven by rates: traders are pricing about a 35% chance of a Fed hike in September, rising to roughly 75% by December, with the 10-year Treasury yield elevated at 4.676%.

Warsh's debut matters because he opposes explicit 'forward guidance', which can leave investors more dependent on each new data point or speech.