DXY September Volatility to Continue Amid NFP Uncertainty

The US dollar index (DXY) has historically been volatile in September, but directionally, it leaves little clue as to which way it could trade this month. According to seasonality analysis using data from 2000 to 2025, average returns for the DXY in September are minimal at +0.1%, with a median of +0.05%. This suggests that the returns have been consistently mixed rather than the average being heavily distorted by a few outliers.

The slight advantage for bulls is only due to a 56% win rate, but it carries little weight considering the actual returns are not impressive. Additionally, down months have been slightly larger than up months, averaging -2.2% versus +1.9%. Volatility is the clearer seasonal feature, with September's 3.8% average range ranking as the third highest of the year.

Looking at the performance of the DXY around nonfarm payrolls (NFP), it seems that NFP itself has produced an average return of just -0.01%, and a median of -0.02%. The dollar has fallen 52.7% of the time, which is hardly enough to suggest a reliable directional bias.

The DXY rebound faces resistance near 100-101, as traders are trying to bid it towards this level. However, unless DXY goes into bullish overdrive soon, it's best to seek evidence of a swing high up to 101.0 in anticipation of a breakdown from its rising wedge formation.