ECB Backs UniCredit's Commerzbank Takeover with Conditions

The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled its inclination to approve UniCredit's takeover of Commerzbank, but only after clearing significant implementation risks and weak integration details in UniCredit's submission. The regulatory fog around the deal is finally starting to lift.

UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel plans to apply a similar transformation formula to Commerzbank as he did at his own institution, aiming for a 20 percent cost reduction, equivalent to approximately €1.3 billion, by 2029. The two banks will remain organizationally separate until then.

The numbers from UniCredit's turnaround illustrate the scale of ambition. Between the first quarter of 2021 and the first half of 2026, the Italian lender trimmed costs from €9.7 billion to €9.2 billion. Headcount fell from 82,000 to 66,000, while the efficiency ratio improved from 51.5 percent to 34.3 percent.

Commerzbank shares are trading near record levels with a relative strength index of 63, and investors remain cautious about the regulatory approval process. The market has already priced in a favorable outcome, but any green light could come with strings attached, likely around improvements to UniCredit's integration blueprint.