ECB Forecaster Survey Sees Slight Revisions to Inflation and Growth Expectations

The European Central Bank (ECB) has released its Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2026, which was conducted between July 1st and 6th. The survey gathered expectations from 53 respondents affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions in Europe.

Headline inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.7% for 2026, while core inflation expectations were revised up to 2.4%. For 2027 and 2028, headline inflation expectations stood at 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively. The longer-term expectation was 2.0%

The respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.6% in 2026, a decrease from the previous survey's forecast. Expectations for 2027 and 2028 were also revised down to 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Long-term growth expectations were revised down to 1.2%

Unemployment rate expectations increased slightly for 2027 and 2028, standing at 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively. The longer-term expectation was 6.1%