ECB Wage Tracker Shows Stable Negotiated Wage Pressures

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its wage tracker for 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, showing stable negotiated wage pressures. The headline ECB wage tracker indicates a smoothed one-off payment rate of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.

The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended to March 2027, allowing for more accurate predictions about future negotiated wage growth. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates stable negotiated wage growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027.

The employee coverage for 2026 stands at 47.0% in the first quarter, decreasing to 28.4% in the first quarter of 2027. The ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information currently available for active collective bargaining agreements.

The data suggests that one-off payments are becoming less significant in negotiated wage growth, with their mechanical effect fading over time. This is reflected in the headline indicator, which shows an increase of 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.