EUR/JPY Key to Bitcoin's Next Move, Not Hawkish Warsh Comments

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has advised traders to ignore Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments and instead focus on the euro-yen exchange rate for early signs of fresh dollar liquidity.

Hayes believes that mounting funding stress at French banks will eventually force the Fed to print money to keep the US repo market working, which he sees as bullish for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

The key indicator is the EUR/JPY exchange rate, which Hayes predicts will fall to 140 or lower by next June. He tied this forecast to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's effort to weaken the euro and strengthen US allies' currencies in Asia.

Hayes points out that French banks, including BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale, handle a significant portion of US repo lending. If these banks retreat from this activity, Hayes expects the New York Fed to lean harder on its RPM program to keep the market funded.

Hayes dismissed Warsh's hawkish comments, saying 'I don't pay attention to anything Warsh says.' Maelstrom's portfolio remains committed to Bitcoin as a core long-term holding, with year-end 2026 price targets of $10,000 for ETH and $0.50 for ENA.