EUR/JPY Seasonal Trend at Risk in September
The EUR/JPY cross is facing pressure as it enters September, which historically has been a month of gains for the euro against the yen. However, this year's technical outlook is mixed, and the chance of another positive season in 2026 depends on various factors.
A Reuters market analyst notes that EUR/JPY's seasonal performance shows positive returns in 16 out of the last 26 Septembers, or 62% of the time. This suggests a favorable bias for the euro during this period.
However, recent events may have altered the dynamics of the cross. The Bank of Japan is set to debate raising interest rates, including in September, with a focus on whether inflationary risks are increasing. If this happens, it could put pressure on EUR/JPY and drive the cross lower.
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY is also uncertain. While the key 183.50 Fibonacci level offers support, a break below this level would shift the bias to the downside and reduce the chance of the cross ending September in positive territory.