EUR/JPY Seasonal Trend in Jeopardy Amid BoJ Interest Rate Debate

The EUR/JPY exchange rate has historically gained against the yen in September, but this year's outlook is mixed due to conflicting technical and fundamental factors.

Average seasonal returns show positive performance in 16 out of the last 26 Septembers, or 62% of the time. However, experts caution that seasonality should not be considered in isolation and should be supported by other factors.

The Bank of Japan's recent decision to debate raising interest rates has put pressure on EUR/JPY, driving it lower at the start of September. Ueda signaled a strong chance of a hike this month, which could further impact the exchange rate.