EUR/USD Eyes Break Above 200-Day SMA Amid Hawkish ECB Expectations
According to strategists at Scotiabank, policy expectations remain firmly supportive ahead of this week's ECB decision. They anticipate a hawkish hike tomorrow, as President Lagarde unveils the latest forecast and signals ongoing concern about upside risk.
This will help underpin the recent recovery in EUR/USD, which has been tentative and negligible but is still holding above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs and marginally above the 200-day SMA. The RSI is in the upper 50 area and climbing, leaning toward further near-term gains.
The technical perspective remains constructive, with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since recovering from below 1.1400 in late July and briefly climbing above 1.1700 on August 21. However, buyers still need a decisive break above the 200-day average to strengthen the bullish outlook.