EUR/USD Hinges on ECB Rate Hike and Eurozone Fundamentals

The EUR/USD pair has been trading at around 1.1536 against the dollar in the European session, marginally higher on the day and up roughly 0.18%. The pair pushed towards 1.1550 in the early hours before settling back into a zone it occupied for a week.

The immediate cap is stacked and specific, with resistance at 1.1535 to 1.1516 holding firm. This is a problem for the rally, as it indicates that buyers are struggling to break above this level.

The Bollinger upper band sits near 1.1550, while the 100-day simple moving average is around 1.1570. Last week's highs were at 1.1555 to 1.1560, with a broader resistance zone extending to 1.1580 and 1.1590.

Above this level, the pair would need to clear 1.1615 to 1.1620 to confirm a genuine breakout. However, it has not closed above the 100-day average once during this advance, keeping the daily bias technically bearish.