EUR/USD Stuck in September Range as FOMC Decision Looms

The EUR/USD price action remains confined within its September opening range, with neither bulls nor bears able to gain control. The key support level has held through a recent pullback, keeping the broader recovery viable for now.

The 52-week and 200-day moving averages are converging just overhead, highlighting the first major technical hurdle for the Euro. A break of the monthly range is expected to provide clearer directional guidance heading into the second half of September.

Next week's FOMC decision takes center stage as markets weigh the evolving policy outlook between the Fed and ECB. The monetary policy outlook remains front and center for EUR/USD following this week's widely expected ECB rate hike, with President Lagarde's hawkish commentary pushing market pricing toward a roughly 75% probability of another increase at the next meeting.

Attention now shifts to next week's FOMC decision, where expectations for a hike have surged following Friday's U.S. CPI release. While inflation was largely in line with forecasts, a slightly firmer monthly core reading helped lift Fed funds futures to price an 87% probability of a rate increase next week.