Euro Remains Pinned Below Bollinger Band as Energy Shocks Weigh
The euro/dollar exchange rate has shown an unexpected rebound, but it remains pinned below the Bollinger Band's middle rail.
The rebound is not enough to alter the medium-term structure of the exchange rate, which has been in a downtrend since April. The recent rally stalled around the 1.1470-1.1485 zone, with the pair retracing toward the 1.1360 area.
The current price has approached the Bollinger Bands' middle band at 1.1408, but it remains tilted downward, indicating that the market has yet to establish stable conditions for a trend reversal.
Rising energy prices and inflation risks have increased policy uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 28-29. The interest-rate market assigns roughly a 65.7% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at this meeting, with an approximately 34.3% chance of a rate hike.