Euro Struggles at $1.15745 as Brent Crude Surges and ECB Rate Hike Odds Collapse

The euro has been hovering around the $1.15745 mark against the US dollar, down 0.06% on the session, after pulling back below the 1.1600 handle during Asian hours.

This marks the third consecutive session in which the pair has approached this figure and failed to close above it, despite a genuine advance from its previous low of $1.1355 on June 24.

The euro's problem is that it's being asked to rally on a policy convergence story while the commodity driving eurozone inflation trades at $91.76 per barrel.

Brent crude has surged more than 7% in recent weeks, and its current price is the single most important number in this analysis, working against the euro.