Euro-to-Dollar Exchange Rate Expected to Rise to 1.18 by Q2 2027
A recent survey of major investment banks by Exchange Rates UK Research indicates that the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is expected to rise gradually throughout 2027, although the near-term consensus remains cautious. The median forecast points to a recovery in Q1 2027, with EUR/USD reaching around 1.18, and remaining at this level in Q2.
The survey includes forecasts from 25 banks for Q3 and 26 banks for Q4, providing a broad measure of institutional expectations. While the near-term outlook is relatively restrained, the balance shifts more clearly in favour of the euro during 2027. The median reaches 1.18 in both Q1 and Q2, while the central forecast range moves higher.
Individual forecasts vary widely, with Scotiabank forecasting EUR/USD at 1.20 in Q4 2026 and 1.21 by Q2 2027, while HSBC predicts a decline to 1.10 by Q2 2027. The breadth of these projections is important, as the median points modestly higher, but there is no overwhelming institutional agreement that EUR/USD must rise.
The survey comes after a sharp change in EUR/USD momentum, with the pair falling to a 2026 low around 1.1325 during June before recovering through July and August. The recent euro gains have coincided with renewed pressure on the US dollar, driven by concerns about US Treasury market conditions and the government's expanded programme of long-dated debt buybacks.