Fed Decision Looms Large Over Micron's Record-Q4 Revenue Projections

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could have a more significant impact on Micron's earnings than its own quarterly results. The tech company is projected to report $50 billion in revenue for fiscal Q4, but investors should pay attention to the Fed's decision on September 16, two weeks before Micron reports its numbers.

The Federal Reserve currently has a federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, held steady after a July meeting that was not unanimous. Market-implied probabilities for a rate hike at the September meeting have been swinging between 35% and 66%, reflecting the uncertainty around the decision.

Micron's growth story is deeply intertwined with AI capital expenditure across the tech sector, which is sensitive to borrowing costs. When rates go up, the cost of financing massive data center buildouts increases, making even committed AI spenders more cautious with their budgets.