Fed Economists Predict Steady Interest Rates for Rest of 2026

The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting, according to a Reuters poll. About 70% of economists surveyed, or 65 out of 93, expect the federal funds rate to remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range next week. This is down from 90% who expected this outcome in August.

The majority of economists also predict that interest rates will remain on hold for the whole year. A total of 56% of respondents, or 52 out of 93, expect no rate hikes at all. However, some economists warn that if there's an upside surprise in inflation data, the Fed may start a hiking cycle.

Eli Nir, US economist at TD Securities, noted that 'if everything plays out as we're expecting, then they'll stay on hold next week. But if there's an upside surprise on the inflation data, they're not going to wait around.'