Fed Forecasts Seen as 'Astrology for Middle-Aged Men' by Ritholtz's Ben Carlson

Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management and co-host of the Animal Spirits podcast, recently made headlines for his blunt take on the Federal Reserve's impact on markets. In a conversation with Joe Weisenthal, he described the Fed's forecasts as 'basically astrology for middle-aged men'.

Carlson argues that the Federal Reserve genuinely matters to markets only a small fraction of the time, roughly 5%, specifically when it acts as a 'lender of last resort' during genuine financial crises. He points to instances such as the 2008 crisis and the March 2020 pandemic panic.

He further states that the Fed's economic forecasts are frequently wrong and that the institution tends to react to problems like asset bubbles after the fact rather than preventing them. Routine quarter-point changes to the federal funds rate in either direction don't meaningfully move the broader economy, according to Carlson.

A real debate exists among serious analysts, with some bond traders, currency strategists, and rate-sensitive equity investors treating Fed communication as market-moving due to the yield curve repricing around Fed statements. The 10-year Treasury sat at 4.63% and the 30-year at 5.17%, with the front end anchored near the funds rate.

The takeaway for regular investors is that refreshing headlines after every Fed press conference is unlikely to change their long-term behavior. The market's own volatility gauge underscores this, with the VIX sitting at 16.50 as of August 4, 2026, squarely in the 'normal range'.