Fed Rate Decision Looms: Will Warsh Hike or Hold?
The Federal Reserve is set to make a decision on interest rates at its July meeting, but market expectations are unclear. The CME FedWatch tool shows roughly 62% of market participants expecting no change in the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, while around 38% bet on a quarter-point rise.
June's inflation data came in softer than expected, with consumer prices rising 3.5% year-on-year and core inflation down from the previous month. The jobs market also cooled, adding only 57,000 jobs in June, short of forecasts.
However, a fresh jump in oil prices and renewed tariffs could push inflation higher, making a rate hike more likely. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has warned that policy is at a crossroads and policymakers have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.