Fed Rate Hike Odds Suggest Uncertainty for September Meeting

Kalshi traders are pricing in a 29% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, according to trading data.

The majority of traders, 70%, expect the central bank to hold rates steady, while a slim 1% anticipate a quarter-point cut.

This divergence in probabilities between Kalshi and futures markets like the CME FedWatch Tool highlights the varying methodologies and participant bases across different trading platforms.