Fed Rate Hike Probability Surges to 82% Amid Energy Price Concerns

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have hit all-time highs since early June, but a recent surge in Federal Reserve rate hike probability suggests the party may be nearing its conclusion.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there is now an 82.4% chance of an FOMC rate hike by the September 16 meeting, up from a 52.4% probability as of July 16.

This increase in rate hike probability can be attributed to three factors: the resurgence of energy supply concerns due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, the entry of Trumpflation into its next phase, and the inflationary pressures caused by artificial intelligence demand.