Fed Rate Hold Chances Rise to 72%, Hike Still Seen as Possible

The Federal Reserve has a 72% chance of holding interest rates steady at its September meeting, according to Kalshi traders. This probability is based on over $10.7 million in trades across the market. The chances of a 25-basis-point rate hike are currently at 28%, while a 25-basis-point cut sits at just 2%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release July U.S. import and export price indexes on Tuesday, which will give traders another look at price pressure before the Fed meets September 15-16. The index provides evidence about underlying international price trends without measuring tariff costs directly.

Professional economists surveyed by Reuters are even more convinced than Kalshi traders that rates will remain unchanged, with 94 out of 104 expecting the Federal Reserve to leave its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at the September meeting.