Federal Reserve Faces Critical Decision Amidst Geopolitical Turmoil

The Federal Reserve is facing a critical decision on September 17, as market expectations of a rate hike have increased to 57.5 percent following Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Warsh emphasized that the Fed's job is not finished, and now the data calendar is handing out quizzes with five key releases scheduled for this week.

The Institute of Supply Management's August manufacturing gauge will be released today, followed by JOLTS job openings on Wednesday and the August nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Market participants have already made their call, but the outcome of these data releases could still influence the Fed's decision.

A weak PMI reading might not lower rate-hike odds as it once would have, as Warsh has made clear that he is watching services inflation, not factory output, as his primary gauge.