Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Tonight: Will Powell Signal Another Hike?

The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision public tonight, and investors are waiting to see if Chair Jerome Powell will signal another hike. The market's base case is for no change in rates, keeping them within the 3.50%, 3.75% range.

However, interest rate futures show a nearly 30% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, making this decision anything but certain. Recent oil price gains have brought inflation risks back into focus, particularly for September's policy path.

The lack of a dot plot in the July meeting means that investors will be closely watching the wording of the statement and any hawkish dissents from Fed officials. Waller's comments on inflation and future rate moves at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time will also drive short-term pricing in U.S. equities.