Federal Reserve Meeting to Focus on Vote Split Amid Tightening Expectations

The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on Wednesday is expected to focus on the vote split among policymakers, rather than new projections or forward guidance from Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Danske Bank's senior analyst Joel Rossier notes that without any new information, the most likely outcome will be a vote of 2-4 in favor of a rate hike, which would still not be enough to trigger a hike.

The bank forecasts a 25-basis-point hike in December and March, with risks skewed towards an earlier start. Money markets currently price in around 8 basis points of rate hike, implying a 31.5% probability of tightening, according to LSEG.