Federation Forecasts UK Food Price Surge to 6.4% by 2027

UK food prices are expected to rise sharply over the next few years, according to forecasts from the Food and Drink Federation. By July 2027, prices could surge to a 6.4% annual increase, the sharpest since early 2024. This growth is attributed to factors such as El Niño, UK summer droughts, and the ongoing war in Iran.

The industry's chief executive, Karen Betts, notes that persistently higher costs for energy, logistics, and packaging are compounding the problem, exacerbated by this summer's extreme heat. The sector also flags higher energy costs tied to the US-Iran war and the likelihood of a supersized El Niño disrupting global weather patterns.

With imports supplying about 40% of what the UK eats, Britain is more exposed when overseas harvests go sideways. This has led to warnings from food producers and policymakers alike, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioning that supermarket prices could accelerate.