FOMC Meeting Looms: September's Rate Decision May Spell Trouble for Bitcoin

The upcoming September FOMC meeting is causing concern among Bitcoin investors, given its past track record in 2026. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates has historically led to a decline in crypto prices. In January 2026, then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a rate hike, which was met with a 7% drop in Bitcoin's price from $84.6k to $78.7k. This event sparked $2.407 billion in long position liquidations across the market.

The data shows that three out of five FOMC decision days this year have triggered bearish pivots, while January's announcement saw a significant increase in crypto derivatives market liquidations. The FedWatch Tool indicates a 65.2% probability of maintaining interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 34.8% chance of a rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. Bitcoin's price action on FOMC meeting days has been inconsistent, but most have seen bearish pivots.

Long-term investors can consider employing a wait-and-watch strategy or dollar-cost averaging as the bear market drags on. A shift in macro conditions will be needed to catalyze the next bull run. The current rate decision is expected to hold steady through September, which may hinder Bitcoin's ability to break out without a clear change in liquidity conditions or a dovish signal from the Fed.